![]() ![]() Mohammed Eljareh of the consulting firm Libya Outlook offered a similar assessment, “Putin would like nothing more than to keep Europe busy and divided over Libya, scared of illegal immigration, paralyzed by right-wing populism that threatens the very idea of the EU.” ![]() Under a ‘mild’ scenario, Russia…will be given another advantage in political negotiations with EU Mediterranean members, as the latter is holding interest in stabilizing the situation in Libya to stop a mass influx of refugees…Moscow’s stronghold in Libya may fulfill a top function in its European disintegration and destabilization policy. The Kremlin could direct a massive wave of refugees to destabilize Europe. In London, the chairman of the House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee, Tom Tugendhat, said, “It’s is extremely alarming Russia wants to open up a new front against the West in Libya, but it should also come as no surprise…they will without a doubt try to exploit migration routes across Africa.” Last year, the Polish think tank Warsaw Institute described the potential Russian advantage this way: The Russian move has alarmed British and other European leaders. As the de facto government for eastern Libya, Haftar provided territory for Russia to control the biggest illegal immigration route to Europe. Russian interest in controlling Libyan territory and migration routes to Europe began in earnest in 2018, when Moscow-no longer interested in the previous international agreement of “a level approach” to the GNA and the insurgent LNA-openly aligned itself with the LNA under the command of Khalifa Haftar, a Libyan-American citizen and reportedly a fluent Russian speaker. It does not address the possibility that Russia might exploit its increased presence in Libya and collaboration with non-state actors (militias) to establish the space and capacity to deliberately promote and facilitate large flows of migrants as weapons against Europe. But this approach assumes that flows of migrants into Europe are merely a by-product of other factors, such as conflict, bad governance, or economic disparity among regions. European funds provide incentives to restrict migrant flows or manage migrants returned from Europe or rescued at sea. One prime example is Italy’s engagement of Libyan militias to control migration, nominally via the LNA’s adversary-the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA). Whether this strategy will continue to work depends on the willingness of EU and NATO members to keep paying the bill and the continuing interest of key state and non-state partners to hold up their end of the bargain. European measures to curtail massive migrant flows from Africa and Turkey during and since the crisis have kept a lid on mass migration so far. At the height of the crisis in 2015, European Council president Donald Tusk warned that differences about how to handle the migration crisis risked “destroying the European Union.”Īlthough migrant numbers have fallen since their peak in 2015-2016, the potential for large influxes of people into Europe still loom on the horizon. ![]() The Kremlin’s ability to unleash millions of migrants gives Putin strategic leverage over Europe since even the threat to unleash mass migration may destabilize already fragile EU and NATO alliances without direct conflict.Įurope is still reeling from the 2015-2016 migration crisis during which 2.5 million refugees and asylum seekers entered the European Union, which in turn caused a great deal of tension among EU nations about how to manage and relocate masses of migrant newcomers. This gives Russia control over potential routes for mass migration from Africa and the Middle East to Europe. With Russian support, the LNA also now controls roughly 75 percent of Libyan territory. Russian deployment of private military companies to support the insurgent Libya National Army (LNA) supports the Kremlin’s ambitions to gain access to critical energy supplies and seaports and establish military bases. THE KREMLIN’S ABILITY TO UNLEASH MILLIONS OF MIGRANTS GIVES PUTIN STRATEGIC LEVERAGE OVER EUROPE SINCE EVEN THE THREAT TO UNLEASH MASS MIGRATION MAY DESTABILIZE ALREADY FRAGILE EU AND NATO ALLIANCES WITHOUT DIRECT CONFLICT.
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